Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, but the question remains: can she win the presidency? The answer lies in how she performs in a limited number of swing states, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won the presidency by winning six out of the seven swing states by narrow margins. However, Harris may face challenges in these states, particularly among Rust Belt working-class whites. Nonetheless, there is optimism that Harris may perform well among nonwhite voters, potentially putting states like Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona back into contention.
Initial polls since Biden dropped out have shown mixed results for Harris in swing states, but there is evidence that she may perform better than Biden among Black and Hispanic voters, particularly in states with large minority populations.
Harris will need to focus on winning key swing states to secure victory, as losing the Rust Belt trio could necessitate a strong showing in states like Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona. The electoral math shows that every state counts, and Harris will need to carefully craft her campaign strategy to secure the presidency.
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